Modeled estimates of HIV-serodifferent couples in tuberculosis-affected households in four sub-Saharan African countries.

Household-based tuberculosis (TB) contact evaluation may be an efficient strategy to reach people who could benefit from oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) because of the epidemiological links between HIV and TB. This study estimated the number of HIV serodifferent couples in TB-affected households and potential HIV acquisitions averted through their PrEP use in 4 TB-HIV high-burden countries. We conducted a model-based analysis set in Ethiopia, Kenya, South Africa, and Uganda using parameters from population-based household surveys, systematic literature review and meta-analyses, and estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019. We parameterized the nonlinear relationship between the proportion of serodifferent couples among people living with HIV and population-level HIV prevalence using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. We integrated all parameters in a mathematical model and propagated uncertainty using a Monte Carlo approach. We estimated the HIV prevalence among adults aged 15-49 living in TB-affected households to be higher than in the general population in all 4 countries. The proportion of serodifferent couples among all couples in TB-affected households was also higher than in the general population (South Africa: 20.7% vs. 15.7%, Kenya: 15.7% vs. 5.7%, Uganda: 14.5% vs. 6.0%, Ethiopia: 4.1% vs. 0.8%). We estimated that up to 1,799 (95% UI: 1,256-2,341) HIV acquisitions in South Africa could be prevented annually by PrEP use in serodifferent couples in TB-affected households, 918 (95% UI: 409-1,450) in Kenya, 686 (95% UI: 505-871) in Uganda, and 408 (95% UI: 298-522) in Ethiopia. As couples in TB-affected households are more likely to be serodifferent than couples in the general population, offering PrEP during household TB contact evaluation may prevent a substantial number of HIV acquisitions.

The relationship between staffing and adverse events in Washington State hospitals: a cross-sectional study using linked hospital data.

Objective: To quantify the relationship between staffing characteristics and patient outcomes in acute care hospitals in Washington state. Methods: Retrospective cross-sectional time-series study of linked data from six sources on staffing and outcomes for Washington state hospitals. Key stakeholders provided input on data sources, measures, and outcomes in a four-phase participatory process. After data cleaning and linkage, we used a random effects Poisson regression model to examine the relationship between staffing levels or characteristics and adverse outcomes. Results: The study included 263 hospital-years from 80 distinct hospitals, with 162 hospital-years from general acute care hospitals (n=46) and 101 hospital-years from critical access hospitals (n=34). In general acute care hospitals, a higher ratio of patients to care team staff is associated with a higher number of adverse events (adjusted RR, 1.36 per one SD increase; 95% UI 1.13-1.63), and a lower proportion of RNs on the care team staff is likely associated with a higher number of adverse events (adjusted RR, 1.16 per one SD increase; 95% UI, 0.97-1.39). In critical access hospitals, a lower proportion of RNs on the care team is associated with a higher number of adverse events (adjusted RR, 3.28 per one SD increase; 95% UI, 1.20-7.75). A counterfactual analysis indicated that if all general acute care hospitals had no more than the median staffing ratio of 1.2 patient hours per staff hour, the number of adverse events would be reduced by 10% (95% UI 2.7-16.8). Conclusion: RN staffing is an indisputable component of safe, high quality patient care, and other factors such as availability of care team staff, hospital features, and patient characteristics also impact patient outcomes. This study highlights the utility of merging diverse data sources to provide a comprehensive analysis of the relationships between staffing and patient outcomes.

Association Between Local Boards of Health Authority Over Budgets and PHAB Accreditation Standard Score.

Introduction: This study examined the relationship between local board of health authority and local health departments' budget-related activities and performance scores in the Public Health Accreditation Board standards while considering the governance structure under which the local health agencies operate. Methods: Data from 250 local health departments were obtained from the Public Health Accreditation Board and were combined with data from the 2016 National Association of County and City Officials Profile Survey. Multilevel regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between local board of health authority on local health departments' budget-related activities, using the governance structure as the group-level variable. Results: Analyses identified positive associations between local board of health authority on local health departments' budget-related activities and local health departments' aggregate average performance scores in Public Health Accreditation Board accreditation. No apparent association was found between the type of governance structure under which a local health department operates and performance scores in Public Health Accreditation Board accreditation standards, perhaps attributable to variation in the characteristics and roles of their governing bodies. Conclusions: The analyses suggest that local boards of health with authority related to local health departments' budgets appear to have an influential role in budget-related activities and may improve local health departments' performance scores in Public Health Accreditation Board accreditation standards. However, vast variations in more specific local boards of health roles and characteristics exist across local health departments and for which there are no national data. More research is thus needed to control for or examine the influences of specific local boards of health characteristics before the benefits of expanded local boards of health authority over local health departments' budgetary decision making on local health departments' performance can be fully understood.

Frequency of HIV serodifferent couples within TB-affected households in a setting with a high burden of HIV-associated TB.

INTRODUCTION: Strong epidemiological links between human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and tuberculosis (TB) may make household TB contact investigation an efficient strategy for HIV screening and finding individuals in serodifferent partnerships at risk of HIV and linking them to HIV prevention services. We aimed to compare the proportions of HIV serodifferent couples in TB-affected households and in the general population of Kampala, Uganda. METHODS: We included data from a cross-sectional trial of HIV counselling and testing (HCT) in the context of home-based TB evaluation in Kampala, Uganda in 2016-2017. After obtaining consent, community health workers visited the homes of participants with TB to screen contacts for TB and offer HCT to household members ≥ 15 years. We defined index participants and their spouses or parents as couples. Couples were classified as serodifferent if confirmed by self-reported HIV status or by HIV testing results. We used a two-sample test of proportions to compare the frequency of HIV serodifference among couples in the study to its prevalence among couples in Kampala in the 2011 Uganda AIDS Indicator Survey (UAIS). RESULTS: We included 323 index TB participants and 507 household contacts aged ≥ 18 years. Most index participants (55%) were male, while most (68%) adult contacts were female. There was ≥ 1 couple in 115/323 (35.6%) households, with most couples (98/115, 85.2%) including the index participant and spouse. The proportion of households with HIV-serodifferent couples was 18/323 (5.6%), giving a number-needed-to-screen of 18 households. The proportion of HIV serodifference among couples identified in the trial was significantly higher than among couples in the UAIS (15.7% vs. 8%, p = 0.039). The 18 serodifferent couples included 14 (77.8%) where the index participant was living with HIV and the spouse was HIV-negative, and 4 (22.2%) where the index partner was HIV-negative, while the spouse was living with HIV. CONCLUSIONS: The frequency of HIV serodifference among couples identified in TB-affected households was higher than in the general population. TB household contact investigation may be an efficient strategy for identifying people with substantial exposure to HIV and linking them to HIV prevention services.

Prevalence of Diabetic Retinopathy in the US in 2021.

Importance: Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a common microvascular complication of diabetes and a leading cause of blindness among working-age adults in the US. Objective: To update estimates of DR and vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy (VTDR) prevalence by demographic factors and US county and state. Data Sources: The study team included data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2005 to 2008 and 2017 to March 2020), Medicare fee-for-service claims (2018), IBM MarketScan commercial insurance claims (2016), population-based studies of adult eye disease (2001 to 2016), 2 studies of diabetes in youth (2021 and 2023), and a previously published analysis of diabetes by county (2012). The study team used population estimates from the US Census Bureau. Study Selection: The study team included relevant data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Vision and Eye Health Surveillance System. Data Extraction and Synthesis: Using bayesian meta-regression methods, the study team estimated the prevalence of DR and VTDR stratified by age, a nondifferentiated sex and gender measure, race, ethnicity, and US county and state. Main Outcomes and Measures: The study team defined individuals with diabetes as those who had a hemoglobin A1c level at 6.5% or more, took insulin, or reported ever having been told by a physician or health care professional that they have diabetes. The study team defined DR as any retinopathy in the presence of diabetes, including nonproliferative retinopathy (mild, moderate, or severe), proliferative retinopathy, or macular edema. The study team defined VTDR as having, in the presence of diabetes, severe nonproliferative retinopathy, proliferative retinopathy, panretinal photocoagulation scars, or macular edema. Results: This study used data from nationally representative and local population-based studies that represent the populations in which they were conducted. For 2021, the study team estimated 9.60 million people (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 7.90-11.55) living with DR, corresponding to a prevalence rate of 26.43% (95% UI, 21.95-31.60) among people with diabetes. The study team estimated 1.84 million people (95% UI, 1.41-2.40) living with VTDR, corresponding to a prevalence rate of 5.06% (95% UI, 3.90-6.57) among people with diabetes. Prevalence of DR and VTDR varied by demographic characteristics and geography. Conclusions and Relevance: US prevalence of diabetes-related eye disease remains high. These updated estimates on the burden and geographic distribution of diabetes-related eye disease can be used to inform the allocation of public health resources and interventions to communities and populations at highest risk.

Assessing COVID-19 pandemic policies and behaviours and their economic and educational trade-offs across US states from Jan 1, 2020, to July 31, 2022: an observational analysis.

BACKGROUND: The USA struggled in responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, but not all states struggled equally. Identifying the factors associated with cross-state variation in infection and mortality rates could help to improve responses to this and future pandemics. We sought to answer five key policy-relevant questions regarding the following: 1) what roles social, economic, and racial inequities had in interstate variation in COVID-19 outcomes; 2) whether states with greater health-care and public health capacity had better outcomes; 3) how politics influenced the results; 4) whether states that imposed more policy mandates and sustained them longer had better outcomes; and 5) whether there were trade-offs between a state having fewer cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections and total COVID-19 deaths and its economic and educational outcomes. METHODS: Data disaggregated by US state were extracted from public databases, including COVID-19 infection and mortality estimates from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation's (IHME) COVID-19 database; Bureau of Economic Analysis data on state gross domestic product (GDP); Federal Reserve economic data on employment rates; National Center for Education Statistics data on student standardised test scores; and US Census Bureau data on race and ethnicity by state. We standardised infection rates for population density and death rates for age and the prevalence of major comorbidities to facilitate comparison of states' successes in mitigating the effects of COVID-19. We regressed these health outcomes on prepandemic state characteristics (such as educational attainment and health spending per capita), policies adopted by states during the pandemic (such as mask mandates and business closures), and population-level behavioural responses (such as vaccine coverage and mobility). We explored potential mechanisms connecting state-level factors to individual-level behaviours using linear regression. We quantified reductions in state GDP, employment, and student test scores during the pandemic to identify policy and behavioural responses associated with these outcomes and to assess trade-offs between these outcomes and COVID-19 outcomes. Significance was defined as p<0·05. FINDINGS: Standardised cumulative COVID-19 death rates for the period from Jan 1, 2020, to July 31, 2022 varied across the USA (national rate 372 deaths per 100 000 population [95% uncertainty interval [UI] 364-379]), with the lowest standardised rates in Hawaii (147 deaths per 100 000 [127-196]) and New Hampshire (215 per 100 000 [183-271]) and the highest in Arizona (581 per 100 000 [509-672]) and Washington, DC (526 per 100 000 [425-631]). A lower poverty rate, higher mean number of years of education, and a greater proportion of people expressing interpersonal trust were statistically associated with lower infection and death rates, and states where larger percentages of the population identify as Black (non-Hispanic) or Hispanic were associated with higher cumulative death rates. Access to quality health care (measured by the IHME's Healthcare Access and Quality Index) was associated with fewer total COVID-19 deaths and SARS-CoV-2 infections, but higher public health spending and more public health personnel per capita were not, at the state level. The political affiliation of the state governor was not associated with lower SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19 death rates, but worse COVID-19 outcomes were associated with the proportion of a state's voters who voted for the 2020 Republican presidential candidate. State governments' uses of protective mandates were associated with lower infection rates, as were mask use, lower mobility, and higher vaccination rate, while vaccination rates were associated with lower death rates. State GDP and student reading test scores were not associated with state COVD-19 policy responses, infection rates, or death rates. Employment, however, had a statistically significant relationship with restaurant closures and greater infections and deaths: on average, 1574 (95% UI 884-7107) additional infections per 10 000 population were associated in states with a one percentage point increase in employment rate. Several policy mandates and protective behaviours were associated with lower fourth-grade mathematics test scores, but our study results did not find a link to state-level estimates of school closures. INTERPRETATION: COVID-19 magnified the polarisation and persistent social, economic, and racial inequities that already existed across US society, but the next pandemic threat need not do the same. US states that mitigated those structural inequalities, deployed science-based interventions such as vaccination and targeted vaccine mandates, and promoted their adoption across society were able to match the best-performing nations in minimising COVID-19 death rates. These findings could contribute to the design and targeting of clinical and policy interventions to facilitate better health outcomes in future crises. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, J Stanton, T Gillespie, J and E Nordstrom, and Bloomberg Philanthropies.

Stakeholder perspectives on factors influencing acute care patient outcomes: A qualitative approach to model refinement.

Background: Health systems have long been interested in the best practices for staffing in the acute care setting. Studies on staffing often focus on registered nurses and nurse-to-patient staffing ratios. There are fewer studies on the relationship between interprofessional team members or contextual factors such as hospital and community characteristics and patient outcomes. This qualitative study aimed to refine a causal model by soliciting hospital stakeholder feedback on staffing and patient outcomes. Methods: We conducted a qualitative study using semi-structured interviews and thematic analysis to understand hospital stakeholder perspectives and their experiences of factors that affect acute care inpatient outcomes. Interviews were conducted in 2022 with 38 hospital stakeholders representing 19 hospitals across Washington State. Results: Findings support a model of characteristics impacting patient outcomes to include the complex and interconnected relationships between community, hospital, patient, and staffing characteristics. Within the model, patient characteristics are nested into hospital characteristics, and in turn these were nested within community characteristics to highlight the importance of setting and context when evaluating outcomes. Together, these factors influenced both staff characteristics and patient outcomes, while these two categories also share a direct relationship. Conclusion: Findings can be applied to hospitals and health systems across the globe to examine how external factors such as community resource availability impact care delivery. Future research should expand on this work with specific attention to how staffing changes and interprofessional team composition can improve patient outcomes.

Prevalence of Age-Related Macular Degeneration in the US in 2019.

Importance: Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a leading cause of vision loss and blindness. AMD prevalence has not been estimated for the US in over a decade and early-stage AMD prevalence estimates are scarce and inconsistently measured. Objective: To produce estimates of early- and late-stage AMD prevalence overall and by age, gender, race and ethnicity, county, and state. Design, Setting, and Participants: The study team conducted a bayesian meta-regression analysis of relevant data sources containing information on the prevalence of AMD among different population groups in the US. Data Sources: We included data from the American Community Survey (2019), the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2005-2008), US Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services claims for fee-for-service beneficiaries (2018), and population-based studies (2004-2016). Study Selection: We included all relevant data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Vision and Eye Health Surveillance System. Data Extraction and Synthesis: The prevalence of early- and late-stage AMD was estimated and stratified when possible by factors including county, age group, gender, and race and ethnicity. Data analysis occurred from June 2021 to April 2022. Main Outcomes or Measures: The prevalence of early- (defined as retinal pigment epithelium abnormalities or the presence of drusen 125 or more microns in diameter in either eye) and late-stage (defined as choroidal neovascularization and/or geographic atrophy in either eye) manifestations of AMD. Results: This study used data from nationally representative and local population-based studies that represent the populations in which they were conducted. For 2019, we estimated that there were 18.34 million people 40 years and older (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 15.30-22.03) living with early-stage AMD, corresponding to a crude prevalence rate of 11.64% (95% UI, 9.71-13.98). We estimated there were 1.49 million people 40 years and older (95% UI, 0.97-2.15) living with late-stage AMD, corresponding to a crude prevalence rate of 0.94% (95% UI, 0.62-1.36). Prevalence rates of early- and late-stage AMD varied by demographic characteristics and geography. Conclusions and Relevance: We estimated a higher prevalence of early-stage AMD and a similar prevalence of late-stage AMD as compared with earlier studies. State-level and county-level AMD estimates may help guide public health practice.

Reconstruction of age distributions from differentially private census data.

The age distribution of a population is important for understanding the demand and provision of labor and services, and as a denominator for calculating key age-specific rates such as fertility and mortality. In the US, the most important source of information on age distributions is the decennial census, but a new disclosure avoidance system (DAS) based on differential privacy will inject noise into the data, potentially compromising its utility for small areas and minority populations. In this paper, we explore the question whether there are statistical methods that can be applied to noisy age distributions to enhance the research uses of census data without compromising privacy. We apply a non-parametric method for smoothing with naive or informative priors to age distributions from the 2010 Census via demonstration data which have had the US Census Bureau's implementation of differential privacy applied. We find that smoothing age distributions can increase the fidelity of the demonstration data to previously published population counts by age. We discuss implications for uses of data from the 2020 US Census and potential consequences for the measurement of population dynamics, health, and disparities.

Associations Between Local Health Department Expenditures on Foundational Capabilities and PHAB Accreditation Standards Scores.

Context: Foundational Capabilities (FC) are the public health (PH) infrastructure areas that are essential for local health departments (LHDs) to support a "minimum package" of programs and services that promote population health. Despite being a critical component of LHD programs, FC are chronically underfunded, and studies specific to the relationship between LHD FC expenditures and their performance-the LHDs' ability to provide essential PH programs and services to their community-have not been previously reported. Public Health Accreditation Board (PHAB) accreditation is a nationally recognized accreditation program for PH agencies. PHAB accreditation assesses LHDs' performance against sets of standards that are based on the 10 essential PH services. Alignment between FC and the PHAB standards presents a means for assessing LHD FC expenditures relative to their performance in PHAB accreditation standards. Objectives: We examined the association between LHD total FC expenditures, as well as FC funding allocation patterns, and performance score on selected PHAB accreditation standards. Methods: We used Bayesian regression methods to estimate the coefficients for the aggregate performance score, and performance scores on individual PHAB standards. Results: Analyses showed that a dollar increase in total FC expenditures is associated with a 0.2% increase in the aggregate performance score in selected PHAB standards as well as the performance score on most of the standards examined. LHDs that allocated FC budgets more evenly across FC programs were found to be more likely to have higher scores. Conclusions: Investment in FC could improve LHD performance scores in PHAB accreditation standards and support LHDs' capability for improving community health outcomes. Allocating available FC resources across the various FC programs could support better LHD performance, as indicated by accreditation scores. This study contributes to advancing the understanding of public health finances in relation to performance and could help guide effective LHD resource allocation.

Estimated Health Outcomes and Costs of COVID-19 Prophylaxis With Monoclonal Antibodies Among Unvaccinated Household Contacts in the US.

Importance: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to more than 900 000 deaths in the US and continues to disrupt lives even as effective vaccines are available. Objective: To estimate the health outcomes and net cost of implementing postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) with monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) against household exposure to COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study is a decision analytical model of results from a randomized clinical trial of casirivimab with imdevimab administered as subcutaneous injections to unvaccinated, SARS-CoV-2-negative household contacts of people with confirmed COVID-19 with complementary data on household demographic structure, vaccine coverage, and confirmed COVID-19 case counts. The study used US data from May 2021 for a simulated population of US individuals of all ages within low-transmission or high-transmission scenarios. Exposures: Age, sex, race, ethnicity, and COVID-19 vaccination status. Main Outcome or Measures: Symptomatic infection, hospitalization, death, and net payer cost of monoclonal antibody PEP for COVID-19. Results: In a month of transmission intensity similar to that of May 2021, a mAb PEP program reaching 50% of exposed, unvaccinated household members aged 50 years and older was estimated to avert 1820 symptomatic infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 1220-2454 symptomatic infections), 528 hospitalizations (95% UI, 354-724 hospitalizations), and 84 deaths (95% UI, 55-116 deaths) in a low-transmission scenario and 4834 symptomatic infections (95% UI, 3375-6257 symptomatic infections), 1404 hospitalizations (95% UI, 974-1827 hospitalizations), and 223 deaths (95% UI, 152-299 deaths) in a high-transmission scenario. Without mAb PEP, the estimated cost of hospitalizations due to COVID-19 infections from household exposure in the lower transmission scenario was $149 million (95% UI, $115-$196 million), whereas the estimated hospitalization cost in the higher transmission scenario was $400 million (95% UI, $312-$508 million). In the lower transmission scenario, mAb PEP administered to 50% of eligible contacts aged 80 years and older was estimated to have 82% probability of saving costs, but was not associated with cost savings at age thresholds of 50 years and older or 20 years and older. In contrast, in the high-transmission scenario, mAb PEP administered to 50% of eligible household contacts had estimated cost savings in 100% of simulations at the 80-year age threshold, 96% of simulations at the 50-year threshold, and 2% of simulations at the 20-year thresholds. Conclusions and Relevance: In this modeling study of a simulated US population, a mAb PEP for COVID-19 program was estimated to improve health outcomes and reduce costs. In the setting of a susceptible variant of SARS-CoV-2, health system and public health actors would have an opportunity to improve health and reduce net payer costs through COVID-19 PEP with mAbs.

Cost-effectiveness of Vitamin A supplementation among children in three sub-Saharan African countries: An individual-based simulation model using estimates from Global Burden of Disease 2019.

BACKGROUND: Vitamin A Supplementation (VAS) is a cost-effective intervention to decrease mortality associated with measles and diarrheal diseases among children aged 6-59 months in low-income countries. Recently, experts have suggested that other interventions like large-scale food fortification and increasing the coverage of measles vaccination might provide greater impact than VAS. In this study, we conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of a VAS scale-up in three sub-Saharan African countries. METHODS: We developed an individual-based microsimulation using the Vivarium simulation framework to estimate the cost and effect of scaling up VAS from 2019 to 2023 in Nigeria, Kenya, and Burkina Faso, three countries with different levels of baseline coverage. We calibrated the model with disease and risk factor estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 (GBD 2019). We obtained baseline coverage, intervention effects, and costs from a systematic review. After the model was validated against GBD inputs, we modeled an alternative scenario where we scaled-up VAS coverage from 2019 to a level that halved the exposure to lack of VAS in 2023. Based on the simulation outputs for DALYs averted and intervention cost, we determined estimates for the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in USD/DALY. FINDINGS: Our estimates for ICER are as follows: $860/DALY [95% UI; 320, 3530] in Nigeria, $550/DALY [240, 2230] in Kenya, and $220/DALY [80, 2470] in Burkina Faso. Examining the data for DALYs averted for the three countries over the time span, we found that the scale-up led to 21 [5, 56] DALYs averted per 100,000 person-years in Nigeria, 21 [5, 47] DALYs averted per 100,000 person-years in Kenya, and 14 [0, 37] DALYs averted per 100,000 person-years in Burkina Faso. CONCLUSIONS: VAS may no longer be as cost-effective in low-income regions as it has been previously. Updated estimates in GBD 2019 for the effect of Vitamin A Deficiency on causes of death are an additional driver of this lower estimate of cost-effectiveness.

Cost-effectiveness of antenatal multiple micronutrients and balanced energy protein supplementation compared to iron and folic acid supplementation in India, Pakistan, Mali, and Tanzania: A dynamic microsimulation study.

BACKGROUND: Malnutrition among women of childbearing age is especially prevalent in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa and can be harmful to the fetus during pregnancy. In the most recently available Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), approximately 10% to 20% of pregnant women in India, Pakistan, Mali, and Tanzania were undernourished (body mass index [BMI] <18.5 kg/m2), and according to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study, approximately 20% of babies were born with low birth weight (LBW; <2,500 g) in India, Pakistan, and Mali and 8% in Tanzania. Supplementing pregnant women with micro and macronutrients during the antenatal period can improve birth outcomes. Recently, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended antenatal multiple micronutrient supplementation (MMS) that includes iron and folic acid (IFA) in the context of rigorous research. Additionally, WHO recommends balanced energy protein (BEP) for undernourished populations. However, few studies have compared the cost-effectiveness of different supplementation regimens. We compared the cost-effectiveness of MMS and BEP with IFA to quantify their benefits in 4 countries with considerable prevalence of maternal undernutrition. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using nationally representative estimates from the 2017 GBD study, we conducted an individual-based dynamic microsimulation of population cohorts from birth to 2 years of age in India, Pakistan, Mali, and Tanzania. We modeled the effect of maternal nutritional supplementation on infant birth weight, stunting and wasting using effect sizes from Cochrane systematic reviews and published literature. We used a payer's perspective and obtained costs of supplementation per pregnancy from the published literature. We compared disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in a baseline scenario with existing antenatal IFA coverage with scenarios where 90% of antenatal care (ANC) attendees receive either universal MMS, universal BEP, or MMS + targeted BEP (women with prepregnancy BMI <18.5 kg/m2 receive BEP containing MMS while women with BMI ≥18.5 kg/m2 receive MMS). We obtained 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all outputs to represent parameter and stochastic uncertainty across 100 iterations of model runs. ICERs for all scenarios were lowest in Pakistan and greatest in Tanzania, in line with the baseline trend in prevalence of and attributable burden to LBW. MMS + targeted BEP averts more DALYs than universal MMS alone while remaining cost-effective. ICERs for universal MMS compared to baseline IFA were $52 (95% UI: $28 to $78) for Pakistan, $72 (95% UI: $37 to $118) for Mali, $70 (95% UI: $43 to $104) for India, and $253 (95% UI: $112 to $481) for Tanzania. ICERs for MMS + targeted BEP compared to baseline IFA were $54 (95% UI: $32 to $77) for Pakistan, $73 (95% UI: $40 to $104) for Mali, $83 (95% UI: $58 to $111) for India, and $245 (95% UI: $127 to $405) for Tanzania. Study limitations include generalizing experimental findings from the literature to our populations of interest and using population-level input parameters that may not reflect the heterogeneity of subpopulations. Additionally, our microsimulation fuses multiple sources of data and may be limited by data quality and availability. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that MMS + targeted BEP averts more DALYs and remains cost-effective compared to universal MMS. As countries consider using MMS in alignment with recent WHO guidelines, offering targeted BEP is a cost-effective strategy that can be considered concurrently to maximize benefits and synergize program implementation.

Assessment of the quality of the vital registration system for under-5 mortality in Yucatan, Mexico.

INTRODUCTION: Vital registration is an important element in health information systems which can inform policy and strengthen health systems. Mexico has a well-functioning vital registration system; however, there is still room for improvement, especially for deaths of children under 5. This study assesses the quality of the vital registration system in capturing deaths and evaluates the quality of cause of death certification in under-5 deaths in Yucatan, Mexico. METHODS: We collected information on under-5 deaths that occurred in 2015 and 2016 in Yucatan, Mexico. We calculated the Vital Statistics Performance Index (VSPI) to have a general assessment of the vital registration performance. We examined the agreement between vital registration records and medical records at the individual and population levels using the chance-corrected concordance (CCC) and cause-specific mortality fraction (CSMF) accuracy as quality metrics. RESULTS: We identified 966 records from the vital registry for all under-5 deaths, and 390 were linked to medical records of deaths occurring at public hospitals. The Yucatan vital registration system captured 94.8% of the expected under-5 deaths, with an overall VSPI score of 87.2%. Concordance between underlying cause of death listed in the vital registry and the cause determined by the medical record review varied substantially across causes, with a mean overall chance-corrected concordance across causes of 6.9% for neonates and 46.9% for children. Children had the highest concordance for digestive diseases, and neonates had the highest concordance for meningitis/sepsis. At the population level, the CSMF accuracy for identifying the underlying cause listed was 35.3% for neonates and 67.7% for children. CONCLUSIONS: Although the vital registration system has overall good performance, there are still problems in information about causes of death for children under 5 that are related mostly to certification of the causes of death. The accuracy of information can vary substantially across age groups and causes, with causes reported for neonates being generally less reliable than those for older children. Results highlight the need to implement strategies to improve the certification of causes of death in this population.

Local Health Departments' Characteristics and Their Performance Scores in PHAB Accreditation Standards.

CONTEXT: Local health departments (LHDs) function to promote and protect population health by executing programs and activities through the 10 essential public health (PH) services in their operationalization of the core functions of PH systems-assessment, policy development, and assurance. PH accreditation supports LHDs by assessing their ability to promote community well-being through a set of standards and measures based on the 10 essential PH services. Prior studies show variation in LHD characteristics relative to their likelihood of participating in accreditation, but no studies have examined the variation in LHD accreditation scores to understand how LHD characteristics relate to performance improvement. OBJECTIVE: This work examines variation in LHD accreditation scores relative to their organizational and jurisdiction characteristics. DESIGN: Cross-sectional data were obtained from 250 LHDs from 38 states that underwent Public Health Accreditation Board (PHAB) accreditation review. ANALYSIS: We used exploratory cluster analysis to identify and group LHDs with similar performance scores in PHAB accreditation standards. Descriptive analyses were undertaken to characterize each LHD cluster group's organizational structure, jurisdiction characteristics, and core PH function activity levels. We then employed multivariate regression analysis to confirm the cluster analysis results. RESULTS: The analysis showed 3 clusters of PHAB accreditation performance scores (cluster 1 = 0.95; cluster 2 = 0.87; and cluster 3 = 0.71). Subtle differences in organizational and jurisdiction characteristics across clusters, notably in population size of the jurisdictions served, were observed. LHDs in cluster 3 tended to have jurisdictions with less than 250000 population size and serve more than 1 county. CONCLUSIONS: Performance scores in PHAB accreditation can be a useful standardized metric for assessing LHD ability to promote community well-being. LHDs serving less than 20000 population size, which exhibit relatively lower performance than other LHDs, may require more targeted supports to close the gap in their performance score.

Impact of data visualization on decision-making and its implications for public health practice: a systematic literature review.

Data visualization tools have the potential to support decision-making for public health professionals. This review summarizes the science and evidence regarding data visualization and its impact on decision-making behavior as informed by cognitive processes such as understanding, attitude, or perception.An electronic literature search was conducted using six databases, including reference list reviews. Search terms were pre-defined based on research questions.Sixteen studies were included in the final analysis. Data visualization interventions in this review were found to impact attitude, perception, and decision-making compared to controls. These relationships between the interventions and outcomes appear to be explained by mediating factors such as perceived trustworthiness and quality, domain-specific knowledge, basic beliefs shared by social groups, and political beliefs.Visualization appears to bring advantages by increasing the amount of information delivered and decreasing the cognitive and intellectual burden to interpret information for decision-making. However, understanding data visualization interventions specific to public health leaders' decision-making is lacking, and there is little guidance for understanding a participant's characteristics and tasks. The evidence from this review suggests positive effects of data visualization can be identified, depending on the control of confounding factors on attitude, perception, and decision-making.

Estimating the population at high risk for tuberculosis through household exposure in high-incidence countries: a model-based analysis.

BACKGROUND: Household contacts of people with pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) have greater risk of developing TB. Recent guidelines conditionally recommended TB preventive treatment (TPT) for household contacts of any age living in TB high-incidence countries, expanding earlier guidance to provide TPT to household contacts under five. The all-age population of household contacts has not been estimated. METHODS: Our model-based estimation included 20 countries with >80% of incident TB globally in 2019. We developed country-specific distributions of household composition by age and sex using bootstrap resampling from health surveys and census data. We incorporated age-, sex-, year-, and location-specific estimates of pulmonary TB incidence from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 to estimate the population in each country sharing a household with someone with incident pulmonary TB, and quantified uncertainty using a Monte Carlo approach. FINDINGS: We estimate that 38 million [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 33- 43 million] individuals lived in a household with someone with incident pulmonary TB in 2019 in these 20 countries. Children under five made up 12% of the population with household exposure, while adults were 65%. Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Zambia, and Pakistan had the highest proportion of the population with household exposure, while India had the highest number of contacts (11·4 million, 95% UI 9·7-13·4 million). INTERPRETATION: Expanding TPT evaluation to household contacts of all ages in high-incidence countries could include a population more than 7-times larger than the under-5 contacts previously prioritized. This would substantially increase the impact of household contact investigation on reducing TB morbidity and mortality. FUNDING: JMR is supported by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (K01 AI138620). This research was funded in part by a 2020 developmental grant from the University of Washington / Fred Hutch Center for AIDS Research, an NIH funded program under award number AI027757 which is supported by the following NIH Institutes and Centers: NIAID, NCI, NIMH, NIDA, NICHD, NHLBI, NIA, NIGMS, NIDDK. This work was funded in part by the National Science Foundation (DMS-1839116).

Improving methods to measure comparable mortality cause (IMMCMC) gold standard verbal autopsy dataset.

OBJECTIVES: Gold standard cause of death data is critically important to improve verbal autopsy (VA) methods in diagnosing cause of death where civil and vital registration systems are inadequate or poor. As part of a three-country research study-Improving Methods to Measure Comparable Mortality by Cause (IMMCMC) study-data were collected on clinicopathological criteria-based gold standard cause of death from hospital record reviews with matched VAs. The purpose of this data note is to make accessible a de-identified format of these gold standard VAs for interested researchers to improve the diagnostic accuracy of VA methods. DATA DESCRIPTION: The study was conducted between 2011 and 2014 in the Philippines, Bangladesh, and Papua New Guinea. Gold standard diagnoses of underlying causes of death for deaths occurring in hospital were matched to VAs conducted using a standardized VA questionnaire developed by the Population Health Metrics Consortium. 3512 deaths were collected in total, comprised of 2491 adults (12 years and older), 320 children (28 days to 12 years), and 702 neonates (0-27 days).